The Arizona Diamondbacks were among many rumored suitors for Baltimore Orioles slugging third baseman Manny Machado at the 2018 MLB trade deadline, and a recent ESPN story uncovered a sliding doors moment that continues to impact the club.
Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that top prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr. would have been in a deal for Machado, a trade that never materialized. Instead, the Los Angeles Dodgers landed Machado and went to the World Series, where they lost to the Boston Red Sox. Machado signed a record $300 million deal with the San Diego Padres the following offseason.
In Hazen’s words:
“We tried to get Manny Machado from the Orioles in 2018 and Jazz Chisholm would have been in that trade. We didn’t trade Jazz there but that got us Zac Gallen in 2019. We don’t get Gallen if we make that trade for Machado, so you never know.”
Arizona traded Chisholm for Gallen straight-up with the Miami Marlins at the 2019 deadline, a move that paid dividends for both sides.
That’s the most clear and pressing ripple effect for the Diamondbacks. Would a trade for Gallen, a young and promising pitcher controllable through 2025, have even been possible without Chisholm to deal?
The rabbit hole goes deeper than that, however, and it starts with what could have happened in 2018.
What if the D-backs traded for Manny Machado?
Machado was dealt on July 18 during the All-Star break that season for a package of players: Rylan Bannon, Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. The Dodgers made out pretty well there considering Kremer is the only player they traded who has produced positive bWAR at 4.9.
At the time, Machado owned a slash line of .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs and 65 RBIs, a dominant first half.
The Diamondbacks at 53-44 were 0.5 games back of the Dodgers for the NL West lead and 0.5 games back of the second NL Wild Card spot.
Their offense had taken a step back after losing J.D. Martinez, as they ranked 17th in runs scored. The pitching staff was top 10 in runs allowed, led by All-Stars Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke.
Third base was an area of need, as Jake Lamb, following an All-Star campaign in 2017, had a rough 2018 campaign marred by injuries. He went into the All-Star break with a .678 OPS, and his season was about to end on a shoulder injury before the deadline.
The day Arizona placed Lamb on the injured list, it traded for Minnesota Twins third baseman Eduardo Escobar. In that deal, Minnesota acquired future standout closer Jhoan Duran.
Machado was good (.825 OPS, 13 home runs) in 66 games with Los Angeles but not as elite as in his early-season success. Perhaps Machado would have performed better in the hitter-friendly Chase Field versus a pitcher’s park in Los Angeles.
Escobar, meanwhile, was OK for the D-backs the rest of the way with a .268/.327/.444 slash line and eight home runs in 54 games. He signed a three-year extension the following offseason and hit a career-high 35 home runs in 2019.
The D-backs ended up folding with an 8-19 September, while the Dodgers barely outlasted the Colorado Rockies for a division title.
Would having Machado instead of Escobar have saved the season? It is impossible to say.
In September that season, the Diamondbacks were among the worst offensive teams in MLB, and inserting one player into a reeling lineup may have added a spark or failed to make a significant difference.
Escobar became a solid D-backs player, making an All-Star team in his own right. Duran, meanwhile, owns a 2.39 ERA and 72 saves with the Twins.
Ultimately, it seems the events unfolded positively for the D-backs, as Gallen became an All-Star and pitched atop Arizona’s rotation during its pennant run in 2023.