Two singles semifinals spots are on the line, as is a doubles semifinal spot, on Thursday as the Stefanie Graf and Liezel Huber Groups close out round-robin play on Day 6 at the WTA Finals Riyadh.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff renew their rivalry for the third time in 2025, while Jessica Pegula looks to bounce back against an already-eliminated Jasmine Paolini.
In doubles, defending champions Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe seek to keep their title defense hopes alive with a winner-take-all matchup against Timea Babos and Luisa Stefani. Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend close the group stage against Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider.
Below is the order of play, advancement scenarios, match times and breakdowns of the four matches scheduled for Thursday.
Advancement Scenarios
SINGLES
The Graf Group still has 16 possible qualification outcomes, with the possibility of Sabalenka, Gauff and Pegula all finishing 2-1. Both the winners and the number of sets played will impact who advances. Fifteen can be settled by usual tiebreak procedures, while one would come down to a percentage of games won.
Here is the high-level picture heading into the final group matches, broken down by player.
- Sabalenka advances as the group winner with a victory. She can still finish second with a loss if Paolini defeats Pegula or if Pegula wins in three sets. However, if Pegula wins in straight sets and Gauff in three, Sabalenka’s fate will be decided by the percentage of games won among the three players.
- Gauff advances with any win, except if she wins in three sets and Pegula also wins in straight sets — then it comes down to percentage of games won. If Gauff loses, she can still advance if Paolini wins in straight sets, or if she pushes Sabalenka to a third set and Paolini wins in three.
- Pegula’s best scenario comes if both she and Sabalenka win. If Pegula wins in straight sets and Gauff also wins in two, Pegula can still advance. However, if Pegula wins in straight sets and Gauff wins in three, the fates of both Americans — along with Sabalenka — would be decided by percentage of games won. Another path for Pegula would be a three-set loss combined with a straight-sets win by Sabalenka.
DOUBLES
Siniakova-Townsend have advanced as the group winner, and will face Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens in the semifinals. Kudermetova-Mertens finished second in the Martina Navratilova Group.
The winner between Dabrowski-Routliffe and Babos-Stefani will finish second, and will face Hsieh Su-wei and Jelena Ostapenko in the semifinals. Hsieh-Ostapenko won the Navratilova Group.
WTA
Day 6 matchups
Note: All matches are local time.
Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (3) vs. Timea Babos and Luisa Stefani (7) — 3 p.m.
Thursday’s slate opens with a winner-take-all showdown between two familiar sides.
These teams met in a pair of matches earlier this year, most recently in the US Open quarterfinals. Dabrowski and Routliffe, who eventually won the doubles title in New York, defeated Babos and Stefani 0-6, 6-4, 6-4. They also won 5-7, 6-3 [10-4] in Stuttgart, winning the title there too.
They were also scheduled to compete in the semifinals in Strasbourg, but Dabrowski-Routliffe withdrew.
Jessica Pegula (5) vs. Jasmine Paolini (8) — Not before 5 p.m.
Head to Head: Pegula leads 5-1
The case for Pegula: She’s historically dominated this series, dating back to 2016. Pegula’s been the only singles player to go the distance in her first two matches, and she fell short against Sabalenka. Her Italian counterpart has lost in straight sets and not won more than three games in a single set so far.
Statistically, Pegula was evenly matched with the World No. 1. Both recorded four break points and landed about 65% of their first serves. Breaking Paolini’s serve is where Pegula can have an edge. Paolini has been broken seven times across her first two matches, and Pegula broke Gauff nine times in her first match in Riyadh.
The case for Paolini: At the Billie Jean King Cup finals in September, Paolini clinched Italy’s second consecutive title with a straight-set win over Pegula, her lone victory over the American. It was their first match against each other since Montreal in 2023.
Paolini’s had a demanding schedule at the Finals, as the only player to compete in both draws, and she also was ill in advance of the tournament. Though she was eliminated in singles with her loss to Gauff, she can shake up the final standings of her group with a win over Pegula.
This victory would be her sixth Top 10 win of the season.
Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Coco Gauff (3) — Not before 6:30 p.m.
Head-to-Head: Gauff leads 6-5
The case for Sabalenka: The World No. 1 is off to a stellar start in Riyadh. After a rout of Paolini, she outlasted Pegula in three sets. She’ll now have a chance to sweep the group — for the first time in her career — against Gauff.
Sabalenka took the title in Madrid with a 6-3, 7-6v (3) win over Gauff, but she’s seeking to avenge the defeat in the Roland Garros final. After that defeat, Sabalenka made a statement by defending her US Open crown and has reached at least the quarterfinals in every tournament she’s played since Paris.
If Sabalenka can frustrate Gauff on her serve, especially with her powerful backhand winners, she’ll be in strong position to advance to her fourth consecutive semifinals at the year-end championships.
The case for Gauff: She bounced back with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Paolini, where Gauff limited herself to three double faults, landed 60% of her first serves and won 75% of points from her second serve (her highest percentage this season). For context, those stats were 17, 54% and 28%, respectively, in her loss to Pegula.
“I’m really happy with how I was able to turn it around,” Gauff said afterward. “Only three double faults — 17 is a big difference. It just shows I have the ability to serve like this.”
Gauff, the reigning champion in Riyadh, defeated Sabalenka 7-6 (4), 6-3 on the same court in last year’s semifinals. There’s a reason this series is neck and neck, and Gauff is seeking to reach the semifinals at the crown-jewel event for the third year running.
Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (2) vs. Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider (5)
With Andreeva-Shnaider’s loss to Babos-Stefani Tuesday, Siniakova and Townsend will advance to their second straight semifinals in Riyadh. Andreeva-Shnaider have been eliminated after a winless start.
In their one previous meeting, in this year’s Australian Open semifinals, Siniakova and Townsend came back to win 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-3. They ultimately win the Grand Slam title, defeating Hsieh-Ostapenko.
