The Kansas City Royals (41-47) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Diamondbacks won 2-1 last year
The Royals split 4 games at the Seattle Mariners, wrapping up the set with a 3-2 win Thursday, cashing as +115 underdogs with the Under (7.5) hitting. 1B Vinnie Pasquantino hit a go-ahead 2-run single in the seventh inning Thursday to give Kansas City a 3-1 lead. The Royals have won 2 of their last 3 games, but have dropped 9 of their last 12.
The Diamondbacks also split their most-recent 4-game set, hosting the San Francisco Giants. They lost 7-2 as +104 underdogs in the Thursday finale with the Over (8.5) cashing for the third straight game. Arizona’s only runs came on solo homers — 3B Eugenio Suárez in the fifth and DH Ketel Marte in the ninth. The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of their last 8 games.
Royals at Diamondbacks projected starters
LHP Kris Bubic vs. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez
Bubic (6-6, 2.25 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 96 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-1 home defeat vs. LA Dodgers Sunday
- 2025 road stats: 4-1, 1.88 ERA (48 IP, 10 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1 relief appearance (July 23, 2024), 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 6-2 home defeat
Rodríguez (3-4, 5.13 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 72 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-4 home defeat vs. Miami Marlins Sunday
- 2025 home stats: 1-1, 4.96 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 6 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 4-2, 4.09 ERA (55 IP, 25 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 10 starts; last faced them in 2023
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Royals at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (+160) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Royals at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 4, Royals 3
ARIZONA (-115) should bounce back after losing 2 straight home games to a division rival. Rodríguez has allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 3 consecutive starts and has won 2 of his last 3 decisions.
Meanwhile, the Royals have lost 4 of Bubic’s last 5 starts and 9 of their last 12 overall. Kansas City did pull off 2 upsets in Seattle this week, but it still hasn’t shown it can be trusted over a meaningful sample size.
BET DIAMONDBACKS (-115).
The run line carries a 30-cent straddle, making it tougher to beat than the more favorable -105/-115 ML split.
PASS on the run line.
Kansas City has scored 3 or fewer runs in 9 of its last 12 games, going 9-3 to the Under during that stretch.
On the other side, Rodríguez has been dominant for Arizona lately, allowing a total of just 1 run in 11 1/3 innings across his last 2 starts. With the Royals likely to struggle scoring and Arizona limited to 4 or fewer runs in 3 of its last 5 games, the Under looks like a solid play.
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
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