Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and explains why Man City forward Phil Foden will continue his good form against Liverpool at the Etihad on Super Sunday.
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Bournemouth will be rested, organised and fully revved under Andoni Iraola – and will surely fancy their chances of turning over an Aston Villa side running on European fumes. The Premier League calendar hasn’t been kind to Aston Villa – facing Iraola’s team after a midweek game is a brutal examination.
Thursday nights in Europe are still glamorous but they take a toll. For all of Unai Emery’s tactical acumen, his squad isn’t yet deep enough to juggle the workload without something giving.
Bournemouth have had a full week to prepare, to rest legs and to fine tune a high-tempo, front-foot plan under Iraola. They’re one of the league’s fittest sides, pressing with purpose and breaking with pace. All this hasn’t been factored into the match prices enough so the Cherries look a nice price on the draw no bet at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Newcastle were “unrecognisable” according to their boss Eddie Howe in their 3-1 defeat to West Ham. The lack of intensity and attacking threat felt very un-Newcastle-like.
Just a one-off then? No, it’s not.
Having looked a little deeper, these underwhelming displays and results away from St James’ Park are an issue under Howe.
At home Newcastle feel empowered – they press, they go at you and they look expansive and confident. On the road it’s different. They’re more cautious and Howe has struggled to find a formula that allows them to flourish away from the magic of St James’ Park.
The defeat at the London Stadium means Newcastle are now eight league games without a win on the road stretching across the summer. Jacob Murphy’s strike on Sunday was also just their fourth goal scored across those eight matches and their expected goals data across that winless run is trending at a paltry 1.2 per 90. Horrendous numbers.
Therefore, it’s very surprising to see them chalked up as favourites to win at Brentford with the home side available at Evens on the draw no bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Writing about Danny Welbeck being in the form of his life in 2025 was not on my radar – but here we are.
The Brighton front man is purring with confidence, looking sharper, hungrier and crucially for punters, more productive than ever. He’s clocked up six goal involvements in his last six appearances, and if you zoom in on his recent minutes against Palace, it’s even more impressive: three goal involvements in his last 150 minutes.
These aren’t streaky stats, they’re signs of a player who’s thriving in Fabian Hurzeler’s fluid attacking structure. So, at 7/4 with Sky Bet for a goal or an assist? That’s value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Sean Dyche is certainly getting to work. His fingerprints are already all over Forest’s recent performances. There’s been a higher ratio of long passes, more pressures in the final third and already the quality of chances Forest are facing is much lower than when under the gaze of Ange Postecoglou.
Dyche is doing the sensible thing and making Forest much harder to score against.
It’s that defensive improvement shown under Dyche and Leeds’ flakiness in attack that makes a Forest clean sheet easy to fancy here. They are actually 18 Premier League games without one – the club’s worst run since 1960. And Dyche will be losing sleep over something like that.
If you look back at Dyche’s last 18 games as a manager, 15 of those landed for punters backing ‘no’ in the both teams to score market.
It’s 10/11 with Sky Bet to go in again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score ‘no’ (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
For punters eyeing up the first goalscorer market this weekend with Erling Haaland in their sights, it’s worth asking whether the Norwegian’s price truly stacks up at 3/1 with Sky Bet. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t.
The bookies dangle Haaland up at skinny odds and the rest of City’s attacking talent gets priced as if they’re supporting actors. That might make sense when City are bullying lesser sides but Liverpool are not that. And against Virgil van Dijk, Haaland’s aura tends to dim.
The goalscoring machine has malfunctioned when faced with Van Dijk, scoring just two goals in seven appearances for club and country.
Phil Foden is 7/1 with Sky Bet to score first
When Haaland can’t dominate physically, City often find joy elsewhere and that’s where the value creeps in.
Step forward Phil Foden, who is back to his best and brimming with confidence.
From October onwards in the 23/24 season, Foden was one of the hottest players on the planet, scoring 25 goals in all competitions during that period – a ratio of 0.7 goals per 90. His two goals in midweek pointed towards a return of those numbers which makes his 7/1 with Sky Bet quotes for the first goal look rather generous in a game that looks so difficult to call from an outright perspective.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bet:
- 1pt treble on both teams to score in Sunderland vs Arsenal, over 4.5 cards in Chelsea vs Wolves & both teams to score ‘no’ in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds (8/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
