The Athletic has live coverage of Bills vs. Texans in NFL ‘Thursday Night Football.’
Still can’t believe I saw Bo Nix outplay Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter of a tie game.
But a lot has been hard to predict this season. Like Matthew Stafford getting epidurals in August and being the MVP favorite in November. Or the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears leading their divisions (the Patriots and Colts by multiple games).
The Dallas Cowboys still being relevant after giving away Micah Parsons is also surprising. I don’t put much stock into their win Monday night — the Las Vegas Raiders’ coaching and quarterback play somehow got worse this season — but Dallas’ offense is legit. Dak Prescott is completing a career-high 70 percent of his passes and has 22 total touchdowns, thanks in large part to two great acquisitions. Javonte Williams is averaging 5.0 yards a pop and has been a great pass-blocker (just ask Maxx Crosby), while you could make a case that George Pickens, not CeeDee Lamb, is the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver.
Pickens refuses to be tackled and is on pace for 99 catches and 1,543 yards and 12 touchdowns.
I, also, refuse to be dragged down. I went 8-5-2 against the spread last week, with two of the losses coming by a combined one point, and nailed the upset pick, as the Jacksonville Jaguars squeaked out a 29-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Can I get over .500 overall this week? Well … I am counting on a couple more surprises.
Last week’s record: 8-5-2 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets
Season record: 78-80-6 against the spread, 28-27 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Houston Texans | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime
Underdogs have been the ticket on Thursdays, and I am always looking for a reason to back the savage Texans defense. There are two. First off, the Bills have lost five consecutive games in Houston, including three with Josh Allen — last season, he completed 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Texans.
Also, the Bills’ defense is not very good, and while no one is saying Davis Mills is anywhere close to C.J. Stroud, he makes sure to get top-five receiver Nico Collins involved. Collins has 16 catches on 25 targets for 228 yards the past two weeks with Mills and will help the Texans stay close.
The pick: Texans
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Here’s a sure thing: The Lions have covered the spread in 13 consecutive games coming off a loss. Jared Goff gets to return indoors after looking miserable in the cold, and the Lions are 4-0 against the spread with Goff when favored by 10 or more points.
But sure things don’t interest me. Give me the Giants. Lost in the coaching change and Jaxson Dart’s concussion has been the improved play of their offensive line after years of being a turnstile. The Giants rank 12th in pressure rate allowed since Week 9 (33 percent), up from 24th before that, and they’re fourth in yards before contact per rush (2.0) since Week 9, up from 14th. Add in a tough defensive line, and their work in the trenches keeps the Giants in the game.
The pick: Giants
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I am a sick puppy. You give me Tyrod Taylor and 13.5 points against an overrated Ravens team with Lamar Jackson at less than 80 percent, and I am going to take Taylor every time.
The pick: Jets
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Patriots keep marching on. Drake Maye gets to go against the worst defense the NFL has seen in years — the Bengals have given up 154 points in their past four home games — and Joe Flacco has to make do without just throwing the ball somewhere in Ja’Marr Chase’s direction.
Wait … is there a chance Joe Burrow plays, rather than wait for Thanksgiving? If so, I’d let the line come down and still pick the Patriots. There’s no chance New England will be caught napping.
The pick: Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
At this point, Mason Rudolph is not a very big drop-off from Aaron Rodgers, so we could get some value there. All seven of the Bears’ wins have come against teams that currently have losing records. I like Pittsburgh whether Rodgers plays or not.
The pick: Steelers
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Everyone is shoveling dirt on the Chiefs, so naturally, we’d want to pivot and back them here. After all, they might be the best 5-5 team ever — and they are better than last year’s 9-1 team was at this time. Plus, Patrick Mahomes has lost back-to-back games only six times in his career, and the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS in the games after that.
Phooey. We picked the Broncos against the Chiefs last week because we thought it was a field goal game either way, and we feel the same way about Jonathan Taylor and the best offense in football (3.17 points per drive, 0.02 behind the 2007 Patriots for the best mark since at least 2000).
The pick: Colts
The Chiefs have their worst record through 10 games with Patrick Mahomes as the starter. Could it get worse in Week 12? (Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
I don’t trust the Packers, especially without Josh Jacobs. The Vikings swept them last season, as Aaron Jones went for 216 total yards rushing and receiving, and he is fresh. Maybe J.J. McCarthy’s alter ego — what was it, “Nine”? — comes out in the cold and hits a wide-open Justin Jefferson three or four times, too. But this pick is about Jones and Jordan Mason running the ball and coordinator Brian Flores slowing down a hobbled Packers offense.
The pick: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
QB experts who backed Cam Ward as being a “legit” No. 1 pick love to keep saying how well he is throwing the ball despite all the stuff hitting the fan with the Titans. But Will Levis had the great arm and occasional “wow” throw, too. And he also didn’t have great pocket presence and made a lot of mistakes.
It will be impossible to evaluate Ward until the Titans overhaul a predictable offense, an underachieving offensive line and drop-happy receivers. Oh, and interim head coach Mike McCoy has been a conservative disaster. The Seahawks covered last week despite Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions. They’ll finally lean on Kenneth Walker to roll here.
The pick: Seahawks
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
What a storyline this could be. The Raiders and minority owner Tom Brady passed on Shedeur Sanders seven times in the NFL Draft despite Brady being a mentor to the QB and signing him to an NIL deal to wear his merch in college. And now Sanders gets his first NFL start against the Raiders in Vegas.
It’s hard to pick the Raiders, but the Browns’ offensive line stinks, and their receivers shouldn’t be able to abuse a bad secondary. Plus, as good as rookie Quinshon Judkins is at running the ball, he is a disaster at pass blocking. Also, the mighty Browns’ defense has been quite ordinary on the road.
The pick: Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Last week, the Jaguars were one of my favorite picks of the season, and every fiber of my being says to fade them this week. But I don’t actually get enough fiber in my diet, so … Trevor Lawrence didn’t do much in that rout, so maybe he pulls his weight here.
I will be able to tell my grandkids one day that I was there when Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 pass completions … and it wasn’t that impressive. The 49ers were up big most of the game and played a soft zone to kill the clock. I might even make this a best bet.
The pick: Jaguars
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Eagles have won and covered the spread in four consecutive games while the nation mourns the underuse of A.J. Brown and lack of big runs from Saquon Barkley. They actually rank last in the NFL in average yards to go on third down this season (8.0). And now the Eagles are down right tackle Lane Johnson. Since 2013, Philadelphia ranks third in offensive EPA per play (+0.07) with Johnson on the field and 28th (-0.02) when he’s not on the field. Yowza.
The pick: Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Remember when we said that the Falcons paying one QB $180 million while drafting another in the top eight was a fireable offense? Well, here we are. The Falcons still don’t have a franchise quarterback, as Michael Penix Jr. faces a third knee surgery, and old man Kirk Cousins has looked terrible. And half of the playbook is out the window with Drake London out. The Falcons lose their sixth straight as Alvin Kamara continues to dust off the cobwebs and puts up his second straight 100-yard game.
The pick: Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Rams are the real deal. They have the fifth-best offense and third-best defense (by points per drive) and have played the third-hardest schedule. But they are coming off a huge win over the Seahawks and facing a desperate and getting-healthier Buccaneers team that has dropped three of four (to great teams) after starting 5-1. It was just three years ago that Mayfield showed up off the street and led the Rams to a dramatic win over the Raiders on national TV. It’s time for some more Mayfield magic at Sofi.
The pick: Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games when coming off a win. And while everyone was excited about Brock Purdy’s return last week, the Niners still can’t rush the passer without Nick Bosa (zero sacks on 57 passing attempts last week), their linebacker cupboard is bare and the secondary is pretty underwhelming. The Panthers have just enough on offense — like, barely — to stay within a touchdown.
The pick: Panthers
Best bets: Can the 2-8 Saints really be a best bet? Yup. The Falcons hit the Wall in Berlin two weeks ago. Give me the Jaguars and Steelers, to win on the road against the Cardinals and Bears. And the Seahawks and Patriots make their layups against the Titans and Bengals, respectively.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Duh. Mayfield and the Buccaneers +260.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
