Two years into the expanded College Football Playoff era, The Game remains one of the most highly anticipated rivalries in all of sports.
Last year’s game had the lowest stakes of the most recent matchups and still ended up being an instant classic in the rivalry. Michigan upset eventual national champion Ohio State and a fight started on the field after Michigan tried to plant its flag at Ohio Stadium.
This year, the Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) and Wolverines (9-2, 7-1) are back to playing a high-stakes game at noon ET Saturday in Ann Arbor.
For Ohio State, there’s revenge to be had. The top-ranked Buckeyes haven’t beaten Michigan since 2019 and are trying to avoid their first five-game losing streak in the rivalry since the 1920s.
Michigan is playing with a berth to the College Football Playoff on the line. The Wolverines were ranked No. 15 in the latest CFP Top 25, opening the possibility that they can get in by adding a win over the No. 1 team to their resume.
And, as is often the case, Ohio State and Michigan are playing with a Big Ten title berth on the line. If Ohio State wins, it goes to Indianapolis. If Michigan wins, it needs an Oregon loss to Washington to go, but the possibilities are there.
It’s The Game, there are bragging rights on the line, the emotions are high and there’s never a dull moment in The Athletic’s No. 1 college football rivalry.
“It’s that week,” Ohio State defensive end Kenyatta Jackson said. “That’s it. No words to be said.”
Below, The Athletic’s Cameron Teague Robinson and Austin Meek discuss key questions ahead of this year’s showdown.
Which coach is under more pressure?
Teague Robinson: It’s definitely Ryan Day, which is crazy to think after winning a national championship. He’s won 15 straight games since the Michigan loss a year ago, has the best defense in the country and has four potential first-round picks on the roster, yet it’s still obviously Day.
The last time Ohio State lost five straight games to Michigan was in the 1920s. If Day somehow reaches that mark with a loss this Saturday, he’ll lose the bulk of the goodwill he earned last year by winning the national championship. That may sound a bit drastic, but the reality of the situation is that Day has to beat Michigan. It’s part of the job requirement. It’s the lone blemish on an otherwise stellar career.
After losing the way Ohio State did last season, another loss this year, to a freshman quarterback and against a banged-up running back room, would be devastating to Ohio State’s claim on the rivalry.
Meek: The answer is Day until he beats Michigan. But the pendulum will swing hard if Ohio State wins, especially if the Buckeyes win big. Moore’s two wins against Ohio State, including one when he was filling in for Jim Harbaugh, are load-bearing victories for his tenure as head coach. If Michigan’s Ohio State mojo runs out, it will be harder to gloss over Michigan’s uneven performance the past two years.
Rational Michigan fans understand this run against the Buckeyes won’t last forever. Losing to No. 1 Ohio State with a freshman quarterback and a banged-up running back rotation wouldn’t be too much of a mark against Moore, but the losing coach always faces an overreaction — ask Day. For all Day has done to distance himself from last year’s loss, there’s still pressure on him to break this four-game losing streak against Michigan, magnified by Ohio State’s being a big favorite for the second year in a row. If Ohio State wins, the pressure shifts to Michigan.
What have we learned about these teams in the past month?
Meek: The schedule has made Michigan a tricky team to assess. In its last four games, Michigan has played four opponents that are a combined 5-27 in Big Ten play, with only one convincing win, last Saturday’s 45-20 victory at Maryland.
Nonetheless, we’ve learned that Michigan’s running game can be productive without Justice Haynes, who isn’t expected to play Saturday. We’ve seen steady improvements from Michigan’s defense since the debacle against USC. We’ve learned that Michigan has an emerging star at wide receiver in Andrew Marsh, and we’ve also seen strides from quarterback Bryce Underwood in the past two weeks. It’s concerning that Michigan wasn’t able to pull away from the weaker teams on its schedule, but the Maryland win was a step in the right direction.
Teague Robinson: Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes haven’t played a difficult schedule for the last month. In fact, Michigan will be the first team above .500 that the Buckeyes will play since winning at Illinois 34-16 on Oct. 11.
Still, Ohio State has been dominant in every game. In the process, we’ve seen Ohio State’s offense be one of the most efficient in the Day era. Even now, with the injuries at wide receiver, the Buckeyes know that their defense hasn’t shown a true weakness and is good enough to win games for them.
How will injuries impact The Game?
Meek: The status of Ohio State’s wide receivers will impact Michigan’s plan on defense. If Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate play, cornerbacks Jyaire Hill and Zeke Berry may have to win some one-on-one matchups. If one is out, it will be easier for Michigan to bracket the other without leaving anyone on an island.
On Michigan’s side, running Jordan Marshall is good to go after missing the Maryland game with a shoulder injury. Not having Haynes means Michigan’s offense is missing its home run threat, though Marshall and Bryson Kuzdzal are more than capable. Michigan also could be without fullback Max Bredeson, whose blocks were key in springing several of Michigan’s long runs this season. Bredeson was using a scooter to get around Michigan’s facility this week, but said he’s going to do everything in his power to play.
A final injury note from Michigan: Safety Rod Moore, the hero of Michigan’s 2023 victory against the Buckeyes, will not play. That’s a disappointing ending for a player who came back from two knee surgeries to appear in three games but now will miss the final six games of his senior season. This certainly isn’t the ending he had in mind, but it’s poetic that, barring a decision to pursue another year of eligibility, his last snap against Ohio State will be his game-clinching interception two years ago.
Teague Robinson: While Michigan is dealing with a plethora of injuries, Ohio State is banged up at its best position, receiver.
Injuries to Smith and Tate have dominated the questions from the media and the storylines in Columbus for the last two weeks. Tate has missed the last three games. Smith did not play the second half against UCLA and sat out last week against Rutgers. Monday brought some updates, though, as Smith told safety Caleb Downs, on his podcast, that he “should be good to go” against Michigan. Day, on the radio show “Buckeye Roundtable,” said both are trending in the right direction. Despite the lack of clarity at times, Day did say both players will get “physical and mental reps” this week, meaning they will practice in some capacity.
It remains to be seen if they’ll play, with a clear answer not coming until the availability report, two hours before kickoff. If they play, it’ll be a big boost for an Ohio State offense that has been hard to stop since unleashing its full passing attack.
Ohio State is banged up elsewhere as well. Nickel corner Lorenzo Styles Jr. left the Rutgers game with a shoulder injury. Day didn’t have an update, but said he will practice this week. If he doesn’t play, the Buckeyes will miss a player who is also capable of playing safety to disguise coverages, which would be crucial against freshman quarterback Underwood.
What factors will make the difference for each team?
Meek: I’ll start with the obvious. Underwood has made a few careless throws the past two weeks — those can’t happen against Ohio State. Michigan needs to avoid sacks, penalties and negative plays. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale needs to have his defense dialed in, which means applying enough pressure to keep quarterback Julian Sayin uncomfortable but not trying to do too much.
I have a strange feeling that this game could turn on a special teams play, which ought to make Michigan fans nervous. Kicker Dominic Zvada and punter Hudson Hollenbeck have been inconsistent this year, and Michigan’s return units have been a mess. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to a return, a muffed punt or a last-second kick.
Teague Robinson: Is it too much of a cop-out to say Ohio State’s health? I believe Ohio State’s defense is its strength and its success will rely on stopping the run and confusing Underwood. It also needs to contain Underwood’s legs. As we saw last year, though, the offense has to have a pulse.
This year, the offense is more efficient and Sayin gives them a more accurate passing attack. Ohio State has forced the run against Michigan the last few years, leading to four straight losses. This year, it has an advantage in the passing game and Day is ready to unleash it. If that’s the case, the Buckeyes need Smith or Tate to play to really open everything else up.
Who’s going to win?
Meek: Ohio State 19, Michigan 16
I’m getting a low-scoring vibe from this game. I don’t see either team having a lot of success moving the ball, especially if the weather is a factor. People have spent the past year telling Ohio State that the way to beat Michigan is by throwing the ball to Smith and Tate, but given the injury concerns and Michigan’s good-not-great interior defensive line, I wonder if the Buckeyes will need to grind some yards on the ground. I’ve come around to thinking that Michigan has a decent shot to win, but the Wolverines have been too inconsistent for me to pick them outright.
Teague Robinson: Ohio State 21, Michigan 14
I’ve gone back and forth on this for a full year. I’ve been picking Michigan since the offseason, because in principle, it’s hard for me to pick something to happen if I’m proven wrong every year.
Yet here I am thinking about the football side and leaning toward Ohio State. I also think we’re in for a low-scoring game, but I do believe there’s a different look in Day’s eye this year. When it matters most, defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will get a stop, and Day will rely on his elite receivers and Heisman candidate quarterback to win the game.
