The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Brief update this week on the written analysis side of things as summer’s list of heavy hitters is already beginning to wind down. Full forecast calendar below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps is still in steady territory as it looks to benefit from being the next-on-deck tentpole release following Superman, meaning pre-sale pacing will accelerate organically over the next two weeks.
- Thursday’s domestic previews for July 24 are currently pacing toward a $25 million start with potential to climb if reviews and buzz escalate. Embargoes will lift the morning of July 22.
- Smurfs is trending even lower than bearish models had already forecast in recent weeks. It’s likely to pick up slight pace among parents with young kids next week, but the IP simply isn’t as popular as other franchises among today’s youth and there won’t be much of a premium screen presence.
- Weekend pre-sales in exhibitor samples are pacing far below Elio and The Garfield Movie, increasing chances of a sub-$10 million opening weekend if things don’t turn around.
- I Know What You Did Last Summer is behind the pacing of high-performing legacy horror franchise sequels such as Final Destination: Bloodlines, Scream VI, and the recent Halloween films. This was generally baked into previous forecasts already, but it remains to be seen if interest picks up next week.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/10/25
(NOTE: Pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date
Title
Distributor
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast
7/16/2025
Jujutsu Kaisen: Hidden Inventory/Premature Death
GKIDS
7/18/2025
Eddington
A24
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$17,000,000
$36,000,000
7/18/2025
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)
Sony Pictures
$15,000,000
$24,000,000
$35,000,000
$64,000,000
7/18/2025
Smurfs
Paramount Pictures
$8,000,000
$16,000,000
$27,000,000
$59,000,000
7/25/2025
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Disney
$125,000,000
$155,000,000
$277,000,000
$395,000,000
7/25/2025
The Home
Roadside Attractions
7/25/2025
House on Eden
IFC Entertainment Group
7/25/2025
Oh, Hi!
Sony Pictures Classics
7/30/2025
BTS Army: Forever We Are Young
Trafalgar Releasing
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
7/30/2025
Together
NEON
8/1/2025
Architecton
A24
8/1/2025
The Bad Guys 2
Universal Pictures
$26,000,000
$35,000,000
$101,000,000
$143,000,000
8/1/2025
The Naked Gun (2025)
Paramount Pictures
$23,000,000
$32,000,000
$62,000,000
$95,000,000
8/3/2025
Sunset Boulevard
Fathom Entertainment
8/6/2025
Sketch
Angel Studios
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$5,000,000
$15,000,000
8/8/2025
Freakier Friday
Disney
$45,000,000
$65,000,000
$115,000,000
$190,000,000
8/8/2025
Weapons
Warner Bros. Pictures
$23,000,000
$32,000,000
$66,000,000
$109,000,000
8/14/2025
Shin Godzilla
GKIDS
8/15/2025
Americana
Lionsgate
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$5,000,000
$16,000,000
8/15/2025
Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs
Iconic Releasing
8/15/2025
Highest 2 Lowest
A24
8/15/2025
Nobody 2
Universal Pictures
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.