Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After 12 weeks, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 13?
Joe Burrow’s Return
Joe Burrow had 820 passing yards versus Baltimore in two games last season. That is not a typo. The Bengals will be grateful to get their franchise QB back on Thanksgiving after missing the last nine games with turf toe. Although the Bengals haven’t been winning, Joe Flacco has been able to produce for fantasy stars in Cincinnati. The passing protection has often been criticized, but Flacco’s time to throw has been one of the quickest in the league, helping him get sacked only 1.5 times per game.
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Burrow is one of the best at creating explosive plays for his teammates, but he often takes more sacks as a consequence. The Ravens defense has made a tremendous bounce-back this season. After starting off 32nd in scoring before the bye, they’ve been No. 1 in the NFL since. However, their sack rate still remains relatively low at a bottom-10 rate. If the Bengals can get the ball out fast versus this defense and let their playmakers (mainly Ja’Marr Chase) do the work, Cincinnati can break through this suddenly stout defense. Keep an eye on Ravens S Kyle Hamilton’s injury, as his utilization has been a significant factor in the Ravens’ secondary and the defense’s success following the bye.
The Quinnen Williams Effect
The Cowboys had an issue and have found an answer. The defense may not be fully fixed, but Quinnen Williams is doing his best to fix it. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, the Cowboys’ rushing defense ranked 28th in yards before contact per attempt. In their two games since trading for Williams, the Cowboys rank first. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty had eight carries for 13 yards and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley had 11 carries for 30 yards.
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Surprisingly, the Cowboys haven’t been that bad against rushing production on the season. They’ve been horrible versus receiving backs, but in terms of rushing fantasy production to RBs, they are much closer to average. With the Chiefs RBs relying primarily on short-area rushing production, they become much more risky, TD-dependent plays than one would originally assume. The Cowboys defense hasn’t allowed a TD to RBs in three straight games. It’ll be much easier to capitalize on Dallas through the air than on the ground on Thanksgiving Day.
Lions Offense vs. Green Bay
Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling in Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs has the third-ranked fantasy RB volume. David Montgomery ranks 46th. The duo has become a one-man show as of late and will likely be more of the same on Thanksgiving. Montgomery has scored double-digit fantasy points in only one of his last six games, making him virtually unplayable against a Packers defense that shut down the Lions in Week 1.
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Most of the receiving in Week 1 came through the running backs and tight ends, with Gibbs and Sam LaPorta combining for 19 targets. Nobody has allowed fewer explosive pass plays than Green Bay this season, setting up Gibbs for another high-volume day through the air in the short-passing attack without LaPorta available. With the Packers defense staying strong versus play-action passing as well, it may be a better day for Amon-Ra St. Brown on quick throws than it will be for Jameson Williams on the outside.
Baltimore Passing Attack vs. Bengals
Baltimore’s passing attack desperately needs a bounce-back spot and is set up for one on Thursday night. Cincinnati is allowing the most passing yards per game this season, but more importantly, has been historically bad versus TEs. Lamar Jackson and his TE duo can take advantage in Baltimore. Mark Andrews has a TD in four of his last five complete games versus the division rival Bengals. Isaiah Likely, who hasn’t had a double-digit performance this season, had two touchdowns in his one matchup versus the Bengals last season.
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The Ravens hold the second-highest rate of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) in the NFL. So far this season, the Bengals are last by 15 yards per game in TE receiving yards allowed, but what’s much worse is allowing 13 TDs to tight ends on the year … the next worst is seven. Jackson has not been himself lately, with only one TD over the last three games. If it’s anything like last year versus Cincinnati (four passing TDs in each game), the Ravens’ TE duo, along with Jackson himself, are set up to feast.
Bijan Robinson in the New Falcons Offense
The Falcons ran 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) at a historically-high 60% of plays in Week 12. It did not work for Bijan Robinson. The Falcons’ star RB had 10 carries for 17 yards and zero targets, with three TE sets not being ideal for receiving running backs. It was a key part in why Robinson has had only five total targets in his two games with Kirk Cousins this season. This is extremely important for Robinson, of all running backs, as he ranks second in receiving fantasy PPG while only 14th in rushing fantasy points.
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The Jets defense has yet to allow an RB to gain 50 receiving yards this season, with no games over six targets to the position as they often play from behind. Surprisingly, the Jets defense has held strong without Quinnen Williams for the most part. In their three games without their former star DT, New York has held RBs to under 3.5 yards per carry in all three games. Bijan will have to rely on what Derrick Henry and TreVeyon Henderson have relied on the last two weeks, multiple rushing touchdowns on heavy rushing volume, to have a ceiling day of his own.
Rams’ Torture Spot
There hasn’t been much slowing down for the Rams’ passing attack this season and the Panthers are missing two crucial components to come close. The first is pressure. Carolina ranks 30th in pressure rate this season, giving the Rams’ pass protection the No. 1 graded advantage on the week. Pressuring Matthew Stafford has been the key to slowing him down throughout his career and not many have been able to do so against the Los Angeles offensive line this season.
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Second is the absence in the secondary. The Panthers are top 10 in passing fantasy production on the season, but could be without three of their top defensive backs on Sunday. Star corner Jaycee Horn remains in concussion protocol, often leading to a one-game absence. Rising corner Corey Thorton, who fractured his leg in Week 12, and Tre’von Moehrig, who is suspended for his fight with 49ers WR Jauan Jennings on Monday, will miss the Week 13 contest. With so much against them, it’ll be hard for the Panthers to slow down Stafford and the Rams WRs.
Arizona WR Duo or Solo Show?
In his four games with Jacoby Brissett, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s expected fantasy PPG based on his volume was WR5. Michael Wilson’s the last two games? WR1. I believe Harrison and Wilson can co-exist to an extent despite playing very similar roles. In Brissett’s six games this season, he’s averaging 43.5 passing attempts per game, the most in the NFL. They also aren’t just short, quick throws, as he leads in air yards per game as well.
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If Wilson’s expected PPG over the last two weeks was cut in half, his volume would still be inside the top-20 for WRs. With Harrison out, Wilson played much less in the slot, from 42% of snaps down to 16%. Only three of his 30 targets over the last two weeks came out of the slot, but WR Greg Dortch did have 10 targets in the slot over that span. If Wilson plays a more versatile role with Harrison back, all the pass-catchers in Arizona can still be of use in fantasy. For example, in the last two games, Wilson, TE Trey McBride and Dortch have averaged 34.5 targets per game. If you sub in Harrison for Dortch in that trio, it’d be enough for 10 targets per game each with room to spare.
Max Brosmer Under Center for Vikings
With J.J. McCarthy this season, you’re banking on a big play to hit for the receivers, and it hasn’t been there. In his six starts, the Vikings are averaging one explosive pass play per game. Even though Carson Wentz has started fewer games and targeted them downfield less, the veteran quarterback has 3x as many completions of 20+ yards downfield to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as the WRs have with McCarthy under center.
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With McCarthy not expected to play due to a concussion, undrafted free agent QB Max Brosmer is on track to make his first career start Sunday vs. the Seahawks. The bar is set pretty low, with Jefferson having 1.42 points per target with McCarthy under center, but volume is what matters. We’ve seen several times this year alone, backup quarterbacks come in and heavily target their star wideouts, leading to fantasy success. The Seattle secondary’s strength has specifically been on the outside, where both Jefferson and Addison line up over 75% of the time this season, but the volume is what will be most important at the end of the day. A new face in itself is a small sign of hope for the Vikings receivers.
The Oregon Connection
Speaking of young QBs’ deep connections, the Broncos’ young passing duo has the opportunity to finally turn the page on Sunday. No QB-WR duo has been worse on deep balls than Bo Nix and Troy Franklin since entering the league. On attempts 30+ yards downfield, Franklin has the second-most targets in the NFL since the beginning of last season with 27. He’s caught one. In comparison, in third place is George Pickens with 26 targets; he’s caught 15. Nix has been far from perfect, but it’s also on Franklin to make some plays, as his four drops on such throws are the most in the league.
If it were to ever (finally) hit, it would be this week. Over the first 10 weeks of the season, nobody had allowed more explosive pass plays than the Washington Commanders. Then, disaster struck. After Marshon Lattimore went down in Week 9, Trey Amos played his final game of the season in Week 10. The secondary, which ranks 32nd in explosive pass play rate, is without its two top corners for the rest of the season. If the young Duck turned Bronco connection can’t pay it off this week, when will they ever?
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Coaching Changes in Vegas
After another brutal loss, Las Vegas has moved on from OC Chip Kelly. Although the rushing production was basically nonexistent, the offense was working for Ashton Jeanty in fantasy as of late. Since the Week 8 bye, 68.4% of Jeanty’s fantasy points have come from receiving alone, the highest among RBs. The volume has been incredible in the passing game, ranking fourth in targets and first in routes run. The issue is it has to stick.
Spoiler: The offensive line is horrific. The Raiders may make adjustments, but I don’t see any path to massive improvements. So it is of utmost importance that the receiving does not drop off in the slightest. Jeanty has five or more targets in four straight games this season, which has led him to RB1 production on the month. Las Vegas has been outspoken about needing to improve the run game and run the ball more, but if the passing game decreases for Jeanty, the changes will only be a downgrade. Keep an eye out for his receiving usage vs. the Chargers on Sunday — assuming he’s able to play through an ankle injury.
