Dan Johnson details his top George Pickens player prop for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Raiders and the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
George Pickens is the edge of the blade for Dallas on Monday. Under Allegiant’s clean air and fast track, his game becomes about space, timing and nerve, not wind or sleet. Schottenheimer’s offense tilts toward the perimeter when he wants stress, and Pickens owns that job with 764 yards and six touchdowns on 49 grabs, living at 15.6 yards per catch. The Cowboys already sit in 11 personnel at a heavy clip, and that structure is built to clear the middle with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson so Dak Prescott can hunt one-on-ones outside.
To wit—below, check out one of my favorite George Pickens to consider from this Monday night tilt.
George Pickens 70+ receiving yards (+100)
George Pickens 70+ receiving yards at +1000 is the kind of boundary bet I want tethered to this script. The volume profile is already doing the heavy lifting: 49 catches for 764 yards and six touchdowns in nine games, 15.6 yards per grab and fifth in the league in yardage. That’s not a boom-or-bust role; that’s sustained, featured usage outside. The air-yard stack confirms it. He’s around 94.4 air yards per game, with 33.9% of team air yards, a 21.8% target share and an 11.8 aDOT. That is a true WR1 diet in a passing game that wants to live in 11 personnel and let Dak pick on corners.
PFF has him second in yards when aligned outside, which matters here because the Raiders sit 27th in yards allowed to outside receivers and lean on corners who can be bullied at the catch point. Their zone structures are designed to protect the middle and rally, not smother vertical isolation. Pickens’ contested-catch win rate and sideline body control crack that shell. In our game flow, Schottenheimer uses CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson to stress safeties and hook defenders, then lets Dak take rhythm shots to Pickens on comebacks, back-shoulders and go balls when Graham widens leverage.
Give me 70+ at even money on a player who already lives near that line as a median, not a ceiling.
