Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers tackle the pressing questions and biggest storylines around the division. This week, we usher in an AFC North game on Thanksgiving, pinpoint players drawing complaints over the turkey, telling stats and chances the Ravens don’t win the division.
Thanksgiving is all about food, family and complaining about the local football team. Who will be the player most complained about at Thanksgiving dinners in your town and will the criticism be fair?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): This is a doozy to get things started and I’m glad the question specified “the player most complained about,” because Ravens fans are usually calling for the firing of the head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator by the end of the first quarter most weeks. By far, the most-maligned Ravens player is right guard Daniel Faalele. If you listen to the talk around here, he’s the sole reason the Ravens will not win the Super Bowl, the sole reason Lamar Jackson has battled a litany of injuries for the past two months and the sole reason this Ravens offense bears little resemblance to the highly productive ones from the recent past. Is the criticism fair? Some of it is. Faalele, a converted tackle, has had his fair share of struggles since becoming a starter last year. He has some really good reps, but those are glossed over in favor of the plays where he’s on the ground, a step behind or blocking air. It’s just a mixed bag with him and the lows are really low. However, it also needs to be said that the entire offensive line has not played up to its potential this year and that includes the accomplished duo of Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum. And really, the criticism is better directed toward the front office, which hasn’t found a guard they believe is better than Faalele and Andrew Vorhees.
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): Take your pick. One uncle will be complaining about Joey Porter Jr.’s penalties. Another will be irked by Cameron Heyward’s preseason hold-in. Another will be fired up about a 34-year-old Darius Slay making $10 million only to get benched in favor of former undrafted free agent James Pierre. But really, no player will be talked about as much as coach Mike Tomlin. At 6-5, the Steelers are on pace for another non-losing season … and that might be it. Their recent play suggests they’re headed for another winless postseason, if they can even get there. For a team that doubled down on defense and brought in aging veterans to win in this window, it’s fair to criticize the man at the top.
Mike Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. (Sam Greene / Imagn Images)
Dehner Jr. (Bengals): Geno Stone. His missed tackles and the lack of effort associated with many of them have made him a symbol of what’s wrong with the Bengals’ terrible defense. He’s coming off one of his best games in stripes, so maybe that will spare him a few shots over the stuffing. He deserves about everything he gets. Stone seems like he wants to be part of the solution (which is more than you can say for some of these defenders). He probably doesn’t get enough credit for his awareness and communication pre-snap, but the tackling deserves a benching. Zac Taylor says the rest of it is keeping him in the lineup, but fans could get their wish soon unless Stone turns in a few more games like the last one.
Zac Jackson (Browns): Jerry Jeudy. And yes, it will be fair. Pro Football Focus grades Jeudy as having 10 drops, and only two players have more. The Browns went forward with Jeudy as their No. 1 wide receiver, and they probably have the league’s worst receiving corps. Jeudy lost a fumble last week when he inexplicably slowed down and never saw a Raiders defender coming from behind. The list goes on in what’s been a nightmarish season for the wide receiver. Browns fans have seen why the Broncos were ready to move on, and they can’t believe their team gave Jeudy $41 million guaranteed.
We are at the point in the season where stats are telling more complete stories about what’s happening with our teams. What is the one stat that tells the most interesting story about why your team is where it is in the division standings and why?
Zrebiec: The five-game winning streak that has gotten the Ravens out of the North basement and into a share of first place has been fueled by turnover differential. Over the first six games of the season, which included five Baltimore losses, the Ravens committed 10 turnovers and forced only three. It’s impossible to win that way. During their winning streak, the Ravens have turned the ball over three times (all in one game) and caused 10 turnovers. It’s totally flipped and that’s the biggest reason that, despite all of their current flaws, the Ravens are still very much in this thing. If you are looking for another reason why the Ravens are just 6-5, their 30th ranking in the red zone is a good place to start.
DeFabo: I’ll give you two: The Steelers’ defense has forced the second-most turnovers in the league (20), but they’ve also allowed 30 points or more in five games. Those two figures accurately represent a Jekyll-and-Hyde unit. It seems like every game, they either allow 30 points or force five turnovers. There’s very little in between for a group on pace to allow the most points in the Tomlin era.
Dehner Jr.: I’ll accept this layup question: By DVOA, this is the worst defense in NFL history through 11 games. This question wasn’t set up to declare victory for whoever found the best stat, but I’ll be waiting on the podium for my gold medal.
Jackson: Offensive success rate: 33.9 percent. It’s the worst mark in the league by five percent, and the Cleveland offense ranks in the bottom three in almost every major offensive category. Last week was just the third time the Browns scored more than 17 points this season, and it was the second of those three that the defense basically dragged the offense into nearly a fail-proof spot. Maybe Shedeur Sanders can introduce a vertical passing game, but he’ll need help from his wide receivers.
Can Shedeur Sanders be the answer for the Browns’ offensive woes? (Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
The Ravens look ready to run away with this thing. What, if anything, gives you pause about them ending up on top?
Zrebiec: A lot of things, starting with the fact that they still aren’t playing any semblance of complementary football. The defense is still a question, but much improved, and the special teams unit has been good. However, the offense is completely out of rhythm and Jackson doesn’t look right. He insists that injuries aren’t holding him back and kudos to him for not making excuses, but his contention doesn’t pass the eye test. He’s been reluctant to run and he’s lacked explosiveness and elusiveness when he does take off. He’s played tentatively and been out of rhythm as a passer, too. If Jackson doesn’t play at an elite level, the Ravens’ ceiling is low. Their run game doesn’t scare anyone when Jackson is not a threat, and their pass game turns pedestrian. It isn’t easy to win five straight games in the NFL and the Ravens deserve credit for turning their season around. However, if they are going to close this division out and do anything in the playoffs, Jackson needs to get healthy and they need to start playing better complementary football.
DeFabo: I think the Ravens will win the AFC North, but the remaining schedule is far from a cake walk. If the Ravens split with the Steelers and Bengals and win one of two games against the Packers and Patriots, they’d reach nine wins. That may be enough with a tiebreaker in hand. However, given the quality of the competition, there’s not a large margin for error for a team that has yet to put it all together.
Dehner Jr.: I’d say the Lamar Jackson injury bingo each week at least raises an antenna. He doesn’t look fully back to himself yet, but I’ll always bet on Jackson hitting his stride. As long as he’s healthy, this feels inevitable, but another extended absence obviously changes the math.
Jackson: They just don’t seem to be very good. The offensive line is shaky. Jackson hasn’t been the same. The Ravens were lucky to win in Cleveland two weeks ago against a Browns team that always gives their offensive line fits. Looming games with Pittsburgh will present similar issues, and the offense as a whole seems disjointed. That being said, in this mess of a division, you don’t exactly need to be a souped-up sports car. You just need to avoid multiple flat tires.
Prediction time: Bengals at Ravens on Thanksgiving, can Shedeur Sanders pull the upset against the 49ers and will Pittsburgh be able to hold off Josh Allen and the Bills?
Zrebiec: Man, I think this is a scary game for the Ravens. Jackson and their best defensive player, Kyle Hamilton, are both really banged up. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are back and the Bengals have at least looked competent defensively the past few weeks. They also are due to win one of these close games, aren’t they? I’ll say the Ravens survive a tight one, but I don’t feel remotely good about that prediction. The Browns’ margin of error this week will be much smaller and I think the 49ers will capitalize on a few Sanders miscues. The Bills offensive line is really banged up and I think the Steelers will take advantage and win.
DeFabo: I’ve been fooled in the past into thinking Joe Burrow would instantly transform the Bengals into a contender. Then I remembered he doesn’t play safety, inside linebacker and defensive tackle, too. Cincinnati’s defense is too inept for me to pick them. I like the Ravens at home. A Bills team that just gave up eight sacks a week ago will have a backup right tackle blocking T.J. Watt. It’s a better matchup for the Steelers than the standings would suggest. Still, Pittsburgh has been far too inconsistent in all three phases to pick them this week against a playoff contender. And I’ll go with the 49ers over the Browns.
Dehner Jr.: For seemingly the millionth time, I’ll trot out my favorite stat. The home team has won the AFC North Thursday Night games 10 straight times. The streak dates back to 2015. That includes Cincinnati’s lone win in eight games without Joe Burrow against Pittsburgh last month. Lamar Jackson is 10-1 against the Bengals. The trend (and the over) is your friend: Ravens win, 31-23. Baltimore establishes further control, with Pittsburgh and Cleveland also losing in tough matchups.
Jackson: Burrow might be rusty, and the Bengals’ defense might cure what’s ailed the Ravens offense, but I look for a wild game to break out at some point. Jackson eventually will make one or two big plays and the Ravens will win, 30-27. I’d like to pick Buffalo to win big, but offensive tackle injuries aren’t ideal when heading to Pittsburgh. Still, Bills 20-19. I think the Browns will play well defensively but come up just short, 19-16.
