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Iowa State basketball vs Creighton game preview, prediction

LAS VEGAS — After clashing in a preseason men’s basketball exhibition game on Oct. 17, Iowa State and Creighton are set to run it back.

There’s a lot more at stake this time around, as they’re set to square off on the second day of the Players Era Festival at Mandalay Bay’s Michelob Ultra Arena on Nov. 25 at 1 p.m. CT.

“It means absolutely nothing,” Creighton coach Greg McDermott said after the Bluejays’ 71-55 exhibition victory, in which they led the Cyclones by as many as 28 points. “There’s a ton of stuff we didn’t use tonight that we’re saving for November and I’m pretty certain that (Iowa State coach) T.J. (Otzelberger) — even though his sleeves are much shorter than mine — has some things up his sleeve.”

Creighton lost its Nov. 24 game to Baylor, 81-74. No. 13 Iowa State improved to 5-0 and defeated No. 15 St. John’s 83-82.

Here are three things to watch for when Iowa State plays Creighton.

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Iowa State’s frontcourt needs to play with urgency once again

The frontcourt duo of Joshua Jefferson and Blake Buchanan has been a fun tandem to watch this season. Jefferson’s versatility and efficiency has been impressive, while Buchanan is an athletic center with smart wrinkles to his game.

Just as they did against St. John’s, they’ll need to impose themselves in every facet of the game, and whether it’s Dominykas Pleta or Eric Mulder off the bench, they will need to keep the intensity going up front when those starters need a break.

Baylor completely outworked Creighton on the glass in the first game on Monday. The Bears outrebounded the Bluejays, 45-28. They got 22 offensive rebounds, which turned into 27 second-chance points.

Creighton’s frontcourt play didn’t inspire much confidence. Iowa transfer Owen Freeman, who missed the preseason exhibition game against the Cyclones, struggled all-around and had just four points. Jasen Green, who started in the wake of Jackson McAndrew’s season-ending surgery, had nine points and five rebounds.

Iowa State didn’t rebound well against the Bluejays in the exhibition game, but the Cyclones’ rebounding efforts have shown tremendous improvement throughout the early part of the season. The Cyclones frontcourt and overall rebounding effort was impressive against St. John’s. They outrebounded the Red Storm 38-36 and got 17 offensive boards in the process. They’ll need to own the paint and the glass once again.

Iowa State guards also have to be assertive in their attacks to the basket. Baylor tested Creighton’s rim protection and was aggressive when it went inside.

Limit Creighton’s 3-point shooting

It felt like it was only a matter of time before Creighton would turn a corner from the 3-point line. The Bluejays have excelled at the perimeter throughout the McDermott era and it’s no different in recent years.

Iowa State got a taste of that Creighton ball movement, ability to spread the ball and the floor, and how dangerous the Bluejays can be when they’re able to find the open man and get into a groove from long range.

It was just an exhibition game, but the Bluejays caught fire in the first half against Iowa State and went 8-of-18 (44.4%), before the Cyclones buckled down in an improved second half defensively and held them to 1-for-12 for the remainder of the game.

So far in the regular season, Creighton shot below 31% from the 3-point line in each of its first four games. The Bluejays finally shot well from beyond the arc against Baylor and it helped them keep the game close when it felt like the Bears should have been leading by much more. Creighton shot 11-of-29 (37.1%) in the loss to Baylor.

Make Creighton uncomfortable and force turnovers

Iowa transfer and Creighton guard Josh Dix had his best showing as a Bluejay against Baylor, finishing with 15 points and six assists, with only one turnover. His facilitating and overall play were bright spots and kept the Bluejays afloat.

Ball security has been a weakness for the Bluejays this season, posting a turnover rate of 18.7% of possessions, which ranks 227th in the country.

Creighton crumbled against Gonzaga on Nov. 11 after a close first half, as the Bulldogs generated 18 turnovers that turned into 27 points en route to a lopsided 90-63 win.

When Iowa State was able to trim a 28-point deficit all the way down to eight points in the exhibition loss to Creighton, the comeback was fueled by the Cyclones’ defensive effort. They did a much better job of pressuring the Bluejays into bad decisions, turnovers and mistakes, which helped disrupt their momentum and helped the Cyclones chip away.

Tamin Lipsey was still sidelined with his MCL injury during that Oct. 17 exhibition game. His availability for Tuesday’s rematch was unknown Monday night after he sustained a lower-body injury during the late stages of the St. John’s game. If he’s able to play, there’s no doubt he’ll be able to help generate turnovers.

Iowa State vs. Creighton prediction

You can’t put too much stock into exhibition games, but Iowa State appears to be trending in an upward direction and is vastly improved since then. Creighton, on the other hand, remains a tough foe but hasn’t shown the same level of growth since the teams squared off a month ago. In a meaningful regular-season game, the Cyclones should prevail this time around, with or without Lipsey. Expect another big effort inside. Prediction: Iowa State 79, Creighton 72

Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.

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