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Wondering if Novo Nordisk is overhyped or a hidden bargain? If you have ever considered whether its current share price stacks up to its true value, you are in the right place.
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After an impressive 58.4% return over five years, shares have pulled back sharply in 2024, dropping 52.3% year-to-date and 11.2% in the last month. This has certainly caught investors’ attention.
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Much of this movement comes as markets react to developments like Novo Nordisk’s growing focus on weight-loss medications, along with headlines about expanding production capacity and global regulatory updates that could impact its blockbuster drug launches. These stories are shaping both expectations and uncertainties for the stock.
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Our initial analysis gives Novo Nordisk a valuation score of 5/6, suggesting it passes almost every check for being undervalued. We will break down how we got this result, look at the strengths and weaknesses of typical valuation models, and, by the end of this article, show you an even smarter way to find out what the stock is really worth.
Find out why Novo Nordisk’s -58.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those amounts back to today’s value. This helps estimate what those cash flows are worth right now, providing a data-driven view of intrinsic value.
For Novo Nordisk, the current Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at DKK 67.6 billion. Analyst estimates project healthy annual growth, with FCF expected to reach DKK 127.2 billion in 2029, nearly doubling over five years. While analysts supply direct projections for the next five years, subsequent estimates are extrapolated to round out a 10-year outlook.
Based on the DCF approach, the estimated fair value for Novo Nordisk’s shares is DKK 1,076.17. Compared to the recent share price, this implies the stock is trading at a 71.7% discount to its intrinsic value.
In summary, the DCF gives Novo Nordisk a strong undervaluation signal, thanks to robust projected cash flows and conservative future growth assumptions.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Novo Nordisk is undervalued by 71.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 928 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
NOVO B Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
For profitable companies like Novo Nordisk, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a tried and tested valuation metric. It puts the company’s market price in context by measuring how much investors are willing to pay today for each unit of current earnings, helping to compare value across similar businesses.
Growth expectations and risk play a big role in determining what a “fair” PE should be. Companies expected to grow faster or with lower risk usually trade at higher PE ratios, while slower-growing or riskier peers commonly have lower ones.
Currently, Novo Nordisk trades at a PE ratio of 13.04x. This is well below both the Pharmaceuticals industry average of 23.13x and the peer average of 21.73x. This suggests the stock may look quite cheap on this basic metric.
However, relying on industry or peer comparisons has limitations. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” digs deeper by factoring in earnings growth, industry trends, profit margins, company size, and risk profile to generate a more tailored benchmark. For Novo Nordisk, the Fair Ratio comes out at 28.93x. This means the shares could justify a considerably higher multiple than what the market currently assigns.
Comparing the Fair Ratio to Novo Nordisk’s actual PE, the stock appears undervalued, reinforcing signals from our previous analysis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
CPSE:NOVO B PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1432 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful tool allowing you to connect your view of a company’s story, such as its future prospects, competitive position, or industry trends, directly to your own financial forecasts, including estimates for revenue, earnings, margins, and ultimately, fair value.
Instead of just relying on traditional models or analyst targets, Narratives guide you to define your reasoning and assumptions, then see how those would value a business like Novo Nordisk. Every Narrative is structured to link the story you believe to numbers, so you can easily compare your fair value with today’s market price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors are already building and sharing their Narratives, making it accessible and interactive for anyone. Narratives stay up to date, dynamically adjusting when fresh news, earnings, or regulatory changes hit, so your analysis remains relevant without extra work.
For example, some investors see Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug sales and manufacturing expansion driving fair values well above DKK 1,000 per share, while more cautious peers focus on looming competition and assign values closer to DKK 430. This demonstrates how Narratives reflect unique perspectives and help you decide when a stock is undervalued or ready to sell.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Novo Nordisk? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
CPSE:NOVO B Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NOVO-B.CO.
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