The Chicago Bears are on their way to having a top-10 offense in the NFL this season. And it might climber closer to No. 1!
I know. Those sentences seem incorrect. Or it seems like I’m missing a caveat or starting point. But it’s true.
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The Bears under head coach Ben Johnson have put together consistent, and consistently explosive, performances this season. They’re currently scoring 2.26 points per drive, the highest number by a Bears offense since at least 2002, and they rank 11th this season in EPA per play (seventh in rushing, 11th in passing) and have generated the most EPA per play by a Bears offense since 2013.
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The development of Caleb Williams (and how long he holds onto the football) grabs most of the attention whenever the Bears are discussed on a national stage, but what this entire offense is becoming, especially the run game, is a dangerous unit that takes it to defenses on every snap.
Caleb Williams looks comfortable, and common complaints against him are due to the offense’s design
Johnson craves explosives. Every interview he talks about them, and he practices what he preaches. The Bears’ play-action concepts are built to seek out chunk plays. And Williams, who preferred working outside in college and as a rookie, has started to thrive as he gets more and more comfortable with the play-action concepts. He’s reading out high-lows over the middle of the field, layering balls more regularly and taking RPMs off of throws, and has some excellent moments of ball placement away from defenders (the Vikings game in Week 11 was a great example). That is so important for lifting the ceiling of what this passing game can be, especially one that uses play action at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season.
The Bears are tied for sixth in explosive pass rate this season (with Johnson’s old team the Lions, appropriately enough). The offense is asking Williams to be aggressive, and he’s standing in the pocket and finding answers with more and more confidence and regularity.
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There are some qualms with Williams’ completion rate, but that’s the design of this offense. There aren’t a ton of gimmes in it. Sure, screen passes are sprinkled in, but the entire plane isn’t built out of quick-hitters and bubbles and flat routes. Johnson is comfortable making one 20-yard gain that they hit half of the time as opposed to stacking together multiple 4-to-6-yard gains in a row. And Williams is finding plays in-structure, while also creating his Garrincha-like moments to make free running defenders miss in the pocket. (A great stat from Next Gen Stats: The Bears have allowed 26 unblocked pressures this season. Williams hasn’t taken a single sack on those 26 unblocked pressures.)
There is a narrative that Williams holds onto the ball too long that is simply unfounded. The offensive plays are designed for him to hold the ball long, which makes sense; it takes longer to attack down the field, especially for an offense that uses a high rate of under-center play action. Williams also enters creation mode for good reason, whether it’s making a free running defender miss or because a receiver doesn’t pop open. So while Williams has the highest time to throw in the NFL this year, he’s also getting knocked down (hit or sacked) on only 6.4% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL this year and fifth-lowest rate by an offense since 2019, the furthest TruMedia’s knockdown data goes back.
Here’s a graph to show the hilarious contrast between Williams’ time to throw and how many times he gets hit. That bottom red dot is the Bears this season among NFL offenses since 2019. He’s truly like a matador back there.
(Via TruMedia)
And while it’s an aggressive passing attack, the Bears have a turnover rate of only 0.9% this year and Williams has thrown an interception on only 1.2% of his attempts. An Aaron Rodgers-esque mark.
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The 4.8% sack rate allowed this year is the lowest by a Bears offense ever (and less than half of the 11.8% of last year), which is attributed to the upgrade in offensive line play and Williams’ playmaking and comfort in the offense. A winning combination of seeking explosives but not allowing the defense to generate too many of its own.
It’s not just Williams who is growing more comfortable in the offense, it’s palpable how all of Chicago’s young players have become more comfortable as well. The Bears have started to use more motion and shifts since their Week 5 bye week. There are still too many procedural penalties on this offense like false starts and illegal formations (their 6.6% penalties per snap rate is bottom 10), but it’s gotten better since their bye week as the learning curve has become less steep for an offense that is wordy and asks a lot mentally out of its players in regard to assignments, formations and possible play changes before the snap.
Williams and the overall operation draw the most attention. But the explosiveness builds out from the run game.
Bears’ explosive run game powers everything, and everyone’s bought in
The Bears’ offense has the most explosive plays in the NFL this season (87) and currently rank second in explosive play rate (runs that gain 12 or more yards, passes that gain 16 or more yards). As the offensive line gelled and Chicago’s coaches got more comfortable with their players’ skills, the chunk plays started ramping up each week, and their 13.4% explosive play mark is the highest for a Bears offense since at least 2002.
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This isn’t your dad’s Bears offense.
The running backs have gained 12 or more yards on 9.2% of their runs this year (which ranks fourth) and are currently first in rushing success rate in the entire NFL at a whopping 46.7%, which is easily the best by a Bears offense since at least 2002. In fact, since 2013, five of the Bears’ top 11 games in terms of rushing success rate have come this season, and six of their top 16 since 2002. Meanwhile, 52% of the Bears’ run plays to their running backs gain 4 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the NFL this season.
It’s the most efficient run game in the NFL right now, and arguably the best Bears offense of this millennium, if not longer, that can also generate big gains with regularity. And they’re doing it with D’Andre Swift — a running back with what I’ll call “iffy” vision as a runner — and a seventh-round rookie in Kyle Monangai.
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Chicago’s reworked offensive line is starting to make an impact. Joe Thuney is still a plus plus player at guard, with his stoutness in pass protection creating space in the pocket and making an impact as a run blocker. The Bears have run the second-most amount of zone runs this year (per FTN) which fits perfectly to new center Drew Dalman’s skill set. (Appropriately, Dalman’s old team, the Atlanta Falcons, have run the most zone runs this year.) Jonah Jackson has had a resurgent year as a powerful run blocker and Darnell Wright has taken a leap this year and is knocking on the door of a Pro Bowl bid. Even former undrafted free agent Theo Benedet has been quite good as a run blocker after taking over the left tackle position (although more inconsistent as a pass protector). The Bears lead the NFL this year in yards before contact per run play this year at 2.07, the first time they’ve cracked 2 yards in more than a decade (2014).
Not only are Johnson and offensive line coach Dan Roushar molding their offense to fit their blockers, they’re running plays that fit their rushers, too. Swift is a good athlete who can struggle to read plays between the tackles, so the Bears started to work more runs to the outside with toss zone plays and windback concepts like this one against the Giants:
You don’t get those big run plays without auxiliary blocking from the skill position group. And that’s another component of what Johnson and Roushar have been doing with the Bears’ offense: complete buy-in from everyone involved.
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Tight ends Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland are both plus blockers who give Johnson versatility with calling run plays, opening up opportunities to the outside, with Loveland starting to flash more and more as a receiver as well. (He has “star” written all over him). Rome Odunze, on top of being a very good all-around young receiver, is a big, strong player who is a willing blocker. He’ll catch a first down and on the very next play align inside and take on safeties and linebackers as a blocker.
Even players like rookie Luther Burden III, who is starting to get more run as a receiver as he has continued to polish his details, has had strong moments as a blocker. Like on this third down designed run with DJ Moore in the backfield against the Vikings, which had Burden scrapping with outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel at the point of attack and more than holding his own.
Johnson loves gadget plays, but there’s not a lot of gimmicks in this offense. The Bears line up under center on 58.6% of their early-down snaps this year, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. (Their formation numbers are most similar to what the Rams are doing this year.) The run game flows off of the motion in these looks, and the Bears lean into play-action concepts to generate explosives through the air. They shy away from running much quick game, instead using the run game to attack defenses underneath and the passing game to create space downfield.
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The Bears are currently leading the competitive NFC North. Their defense is still a work in progress that should get an uptick as the Bears get healthier on the back end. There have been so many defensive back injuries for this team. (Also a sidenote: Make sure to check out young edge defender Austin Booker. He has a chance to be a very good player and has really flashed since coming back from injury.)
While this Bears offense and Williams aren’t perfect, the early returns under Johnson have been so, so encouraging. They’re currently knocking on the door of being a top-10 offense, and I would say they’re already there. They soon might even get tagged with the dreaded “E” word (elite). The Bears’ run game is already there, and their quarterback might be getting there sooner rather than later, too.
