TAMPA — If the All-Star break had come at the season’s exact midpoint, things would look quite a bit different for the Rays right now.
After 81 games, the Rays were 46-35. They were a half-game behind the Yankees in the American League East standings. Only four teams in the Majors had a better run differential. And they were as hot as could be as they left Kansas City on June 26, having just won for the 25th time in their past 34 games.
But as the Rays left Fenway Park last Sunday and went their separate ways for the All-Star break, they had lost 12 of their past 16 games. They were fourth in the AL East and out of an AL Wild Card spot. Their bullpen, always at the heart of their success, gave up several multirun leads during that skid.
The Rays aren’t worried, though. They believe they can get back to being the team that put together the best record in baseball for more than a month.
“We’ve had our ups and downs, but I’m still happy with the way we’ve played. The streak that we are in right now, it’s part of baseball, so that’s how I see it,” All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda said. “I think the break is going to help just [have a] fresh mind when we come back. It is what it is right now, but I’m very confident that we can come back from that.”
The rest of the season will be challenging. The Rays will spend a lot of time on the road. They’ll face all their division foes. And the July 31 Trade Deadline could alter the league’s competitive landscape.
How will it play out for the Rays? Let’s consider a few key topics.
One second-half goal: Get back to the postseason
For about seven weeks, it looked like the Rays might be bound for a second straight mediocre season. Then, for the next five weeks, they played like the best team in baseball. Finally, they struggled through a 10-day road trip to finish the first half, erasing much of the progress they made in late May and June.
With a large group of AL Wild Card hopefuls, they can’t afford many more stretches like that. They need to get back to playing their brand of baseball if they want to return to the playoffs after sitting out October last year.
Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Flexible buyers
The Rays’ early trade for reliever Bryan Baker addressed their biggest need. The question might be whether they need another reliever to shore up a relief corps that limped into the All-Star break.
Otherwise, there aren’t a lot of obvious deficiencies to address. The rotation is deep and talented. The Rays could add another bat, but at what position? It’s possible they could get creative and deal from their surplus of starting pitching (Zack Littell? Taj Bradley?) while still approaching the Deadline as a club that expects to contend.
As usual, their level of aggressiveness will depend on how far out of the division race they stand.
Key player: 2B Brandon Lowe
The Rays treaded water as Lowe got off to a slow start, which was due in part to bad luck at the beginning of the season. When he got hot in mid-May, the team followed suit. And when he got hurt a week before the break, his absence from the lineup was noticeable as Tampa Bay slumped.
You can argue that Junior Caminero is a more valuable run producer, that Jonathan Aranda has been a better all-around hitter or that Josh Lowe and Yandy Díaz play equally key roles. But the Rays tend to go as their All-Star second baseman goes.
One more to consider here? Shane McClanahan, of course. He’s back in the rehab swing with Triple-A Durham, putting him in line to return to the rotation in late July or early August. If he’s back in ace form, he would provide the rotation with a tremendous boost down the stretch.
Prospect to watch: SS Carson Williams (Rays’ No. 1 prospect)
Williams got off to a dreadful start for Triple-A Durham, slashing just .173/.277/.341 with a 37.9% strikeout rate through May. But he got hot after that, producing a .283/.391/.611 slash line with 10 homers, 29 RBIs and a reduced strikeout rate in his next 32 games. He isn’t likely to help the Rays down the stretch when they have Ha-Seong Kim, Taylor Walls and José Caballero at shortstop, but a strong finish to this season could prove that he’ll be ready to be Tampa Bay’s shortstop next year.
Theoretically, the Rays’ second-half schedule begins in favorable fashion. They’re back home at George M. Steinbrenner Field, where they are 28-25 despite a rough start in their temporary ballpark. They’re hosting the Orioles and White Sox, a pair of last-place clubs, although they’re only 3-4 against Baltimore this year and went 2-4 against a 121-loss White Sox team last season.
Will the Rays come back rested, refreshed and ready to go?
Games remaining: 65 (28 at home, 37 on the road)
Remaining strength of schedule: .499, 15th in MLB, eighth in AL, fourth in AL East
Key series
July 28-31: Four games at Yankee Stadium, wrapping up just before the Trade Deadline.
Aug. 4-17: An extremely rare four-series West Coast trip to Anaheim, Seattle, West Sacramento and San Francisco, a trip that will span two full weeks when it’s all said and done.
Sept. 15-21: The Rays’ final homestand, featuring series against the Blue Jays and Red Sox, two division foes who look like legitimate postseason contenders. (They’ll get the Jays again in Toronto to finish the season from Sept. 26-28.)
