We have arrived at the final series before the All-Star break. Three games against the Marlins are all that stands between the Orioles and a few days off to contemplate the future. Well, they’ll probably try very hard to contemplate nothing, it’ll be fans and the front office who have to do the contemplating.
The teams enter this series with identical 42-50 records. Each of the Orioles and Marlins were bad in April and May and are trying to claw their way back from that. The Marlins are a bit farther out, sitting eight games back of an NL wild card spot, while the O’s trail the AL’s third wild card by 6.5 games. It’s still a long shot for both of these teams. Most of what makes it a longshot for the Orioles is that they have to pass seven other teams to claim a spot. Even if they get very hot, they need many other things to go right.
With Trevor Rogers set to pitch in this series and both Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby active for the Marlins, a narrative is ready-made to be formed one way or the other about the merits of that trade. If Stowers (or Norby) lights up against his former team with two or three homers over the weekend, that will sting. As it is, Stowers has three homers more than anybody else on the Orioles does. Dean Kremer has gotta be good to give up at least one homer to the lefty Stowers in Camden Yards.
If Rogers is torched on Saturday, that will also sting. The trade has been trending better for the Orioles side since he’s done well in a handful of starts this year, but that 1.57 ERA can get spoiled in a hurry over such a small sample size. At least as far as facing the Marlins, they’ve been doing worse at hitting lefties compared to righties. So have the Orioles, of course, but no Miami lefty starting pitchers await.
Game 1 – Friday, 7:05 Eastern
- BAL starter: Dean Kremer – 4.53 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.322 WHIP in 18 games
- MIA starter: Edward Cabrera – 3.33 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.226 WHIP in 15 games
Cabrera looked to be headed towards a disastrous season after his four starts in April, when he was sitting at a 7.23 ERA. Things have been going better ever since and in particular over his last four starts he’s allowed just five earned runs in 25.2 innings. He’s coming off of back-to-back seven inning outings.
Kremer was also headed towards a disastrous season at the end of April. At that point, after five starts, he had a 7.04 ERA. He, too, has improved since then, though not nearly to the same extent. Since May, he’s had runs of good starts and runs of some bad ones. Last time out, he gave up five runs in 4.1 innings against the Braves, so hopefully that’s not the start of one of his bad stretches.
Game 2 – Saturday, 4:05 Eastern
- BAL starter: Trevor Rogers – 1.57 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 0.872 WHIP in 5 games
- MIA starter: Janson Junk – 3.12 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 1.038 WHIP in 9 games
The guy’s name is Junk. Isn’t that funny? He’s not pitching like junk so far this year. This is actually the first season that Junk, 29, has ever gotten any kind of extended big league chance. He had combined for 40 MLB innings over the last four seasons before this, and he’s already thrown 43.1 innings up to this point in the season. Working in his favor are miniscule walk rates (0.8 BB/9) and home run rates (0.2 HR/9).
People are hitting the ball hard against Junk. He’s in literally the first percentile in Statcast measures for average exit velocity allowed, as well as hard-hit percentage allowed. He does not induce swing-and-miss as often as top-end pitchers. Orioles batters have had some bad games against pitchers like this.
I’m being facetious when I act like the Rogers-Stowers/Norby swap should be judged solely based on what happens this weekend. Some people who are prone to panic are going to do it if it goes badly for the Orioles. I hope we can all avoid having to hear about this. It’s also important for the O’s keeping their slim wild card hopes alive! They need to win at least two of three in this series and that’s sure going to be helped if Rogers continues to do well as a major leaguer in 2025.
Game 3 – Sunday, 1:35 Eastern
- BAL starter: Brandon Young – 6.14 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.727 WHIP in 5 games
- MIA starter: Eury Pérez – 4.00 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.037 WHIP in 6 games
Pérez raced up to the major league level to debut in the 2023 season in what was just his age 20 year. He acquitted himself well, with a 3.15 ERA and 108 strikeouts over 91.1 innings that year. Unfortunately for him and the Marlins, he needed Tommy John surgery and did not end up pitching in 2024. He’s six starts back from TJ. For the most part, Miami is letting Pérez go to about 90 pitches and however far into the game he gets with that, that’s where he goes. For his first three starts, that was fewer than five innings. In July, he’s made a couple of excellent starts against the Twins and Reds.
The season totals for Young don’t look too good in his small sample size. They’ll start to look better if he can put together more games at least as good as his last one, where he gave up two runs in 5.1 innings. This wasn’t a “he got tired” outing as he departed in the sixth; he’d only thrown 66 pitches. It was a “Young suddenly stunk against the bottom of the lineup and then the Orioles decided not to keep pushing him the third time through” kind of game. Miami’s offense is not nearly as good as the Mets, so I’d really like to see a better game from Young here.
**
I figure the Orioles are due for a letdown series this weekend. That’s not based on any rational conclusion. It’s more about my lived experience as an Orioles fan, particularly a 2025 Orioles fan. They keep the idea of making a run dangling just close enough for people to believe in it a little – even jaded people like me – and then something dumb happens to yank it back away. What do you think?
Poll
How many games will the Orioles win in this series against the Marlins?
-
4%
0 (Orioles are swept)
(13 votes)
282 votes total
Vote Now