Brazil is one of the relatively few countries that buys more from the US than it sells – a setup which theoretically suits Trump’s trade agenda.
Given this imbalance, the tariff threat was seen by many Brazilian analysts and politicians as an overt gesture of support for Jair Bolsonaro.
This was underscored by Trump’s letter, which strongly criticised the Brazilian government and Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial in the Supreme Court that centres on an alleged coup attempt two years ago.
Some kind of assistance for Bolsonaro from Trump was already expected by Brazilian politicians – but not on this scale.
On 8 January 2023, hundreds of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court, and the presidential palace – in an apparent attempt to overturn the election won by Lula a few months earlier.
Bolsonaro denies any connection to that event, which was seen by many as a Brazilian version of the attacks on the US Capitol building by Trump’s supporters two years before. Trump, too, was investigated in the aftermath of the US riot – and condemned those who tried to prosecute him.
Bolsonaro’s supporters have asked for some kind of Trump support for months. His son Eduardo took a leave of absence from Brazil’s Congress, where he serves as a representative, and moved to the US. A Mar-a-Lago regular, he has aimed to rally support for his father from Trump’s inner circle and his broader MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement.
In another part of his missive seen as firmly backing Bolsonaro, Trump accused the Brazilian government of “insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”, including the censorship of “US Social Media platforms”.
As part of an ongoing investigation into the spread of disinformation in the country, Brazil’s Supreme Court has, in recent years, ordered the blocking of several social media accounts – many of them belonging to Bolsonaro’s supporters.