‘Mbeumo’s level of clinical finishing has rarely proved repeatable’published at 14:15 British Summer Time
Tom McCoy
BBC Sport journalist
Brentford
are reportedly demanding £65m for Bryan Mbeumo, who is a transfer target for
Manchester United after scoring 20 Premier League goals in 2024-25.
That career-best
haul came despite an expected goals total for the campaign of 12.3, meaning he
outperformed his xG by 7.7, more than any other top-flight player.
Historically,
that level of clinical finishing has rarely proved repeatable. In the past five
Premier League seasons, just 14 players have overperformed their xG by at least
five goals. The only player to do so more than once is Tottenham’s Son
Heung-min, in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
That
doesn’t make Mbeumo, who consistently ranks highly for chances created, any
less of an asset to potential suitors. But it could mean United have to pay a
premium for his signature, which perhaps risks inflating expectations from
supporters.
The Red
Devils have already signed another forward who dramatically surpassed his xG
last term, spending £62.5m on Matheus Cunha. The Brazilian’s 15 goals for
Wolves came from an xG of 8.6, with only Mbeumo and Chris Wood recording bigger
differences in 2024-25.
Image source, BBC Sport