The Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) face the Miami Marlins (39-46) in the opener of a 3-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Loan Depot Park in Miami is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Brewers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 4-2 last year
The Brew Crew dropped 2 of 3 at the New York Mets this week. The latest was a 3-2 final Thursday. OF Jackson Chourio leads this bunch, hitting .253 with 14 homers and 51 RBIs. The 21-year-old has also swiped 15 bags. The Brewers are not a good road team at 21-22, compared to 27-17 at home.
Cancel your plans for attending a fish fry this holiday. The Marlins are 9-1 in their last 10 and 14-6 in their last 20. They took 2 of 3 from the Minnesota Twins this week with the latest a 4-1 winner Thursday. C Agustin Ramirez smoked his 13th homer of the season in that one. RP Ronny Henriquez came on for his fifth save of the year. He’s 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 58 K’s in 42 IP this year.
Brewers at Marlins projected starters
RHP Quinn Priester vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Priester (6-2, 3.35 ERA) makes his 12h start (16th appearance). He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 78 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 11 K in 5-0 home win over Colorado Rockies Saturday
- Career vs. Marlins: 1 home start with Pittsburgh Pirates (Sept. 30, 2023), loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-3 defeat
Alcantara (4-8, 6.98 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 80 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 8-7 loss in 10 innings at Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
- 4 career starts vs. MIL: 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 23 K’s in 29 IP
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Brewers at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Marlins 3
I love the BREWERS (-125) as short favorites on the road. Alcantara has been a shell of himself coming back from Tommy John surgery. His exit velocity is 90.9, which is up 2 mph from 2023. His K% is down to 17.5, which is 2.3% below ’23, and his walk rate is up 3.1% from ’23. It’s entirely possible that he’s simply struggling to repeat his mechanics, but at 29, he may not return to Cy Young form.
Give me the BREWERS OVER 3.5 RUNS (-160). They’ve scored 4+ runs in 7 of 10, and they won 6 of those. Alcantara has 4 starts allowing 3+ ER of his own in his last 7 GS.
It’s slated to be an 84-degree evening with a slight chance of rain and a 10-mph breeze blowing toward the left-field foul pole. The Marlins are 5-4-1 O/U in their last 10, and the Brewers are 6-4.
I like the OVER 8 (-115).
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