The National Hurricane Center said an area of low pressure could develop off the Southeast coast over the Fourth of July holiday, and heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to slam Florida. FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera breaks down the latest forecast on July 2, 2025.
TAMPA, Fla. – Millions of people in Florida and the Southeast are keeping a close eye on the weather forecast that could halt outdoor and beach plans across the region over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
In addition to the precipitation, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects to be monitoring an area of disturbed weather for tropical development, which will become the main focus for forecasters through the weekend and into next week.
Regardless of tropical development, Florida is expected to see additional flooding rain and thunderstorms through the foreseeable future.
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The NHC said that an area of low pressure could develop near the southeastern U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form over the region over the Fourth of July holiday weekend or early next week as the system meanders off the coast.
Right now, the NHC is giving the system a medium chance of developing over the next seven days.
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Florida’s 4th of July holiday outdoor, beach plans in jeopardy
This graphic shows the forecast rain totals in Florida through Monday, July 7, 2025.
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As a stalling cold front weakens over Florida in the coming days, torrential rain and thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the upcoming weekend.
Several inches of rain could fall along Florida’s Gulf coast from the Cedar Key area southward through Sarasota, as well as in the Orlando area.
Heavy rain is also likely to have an impact on holiday weekend plans on the Atlantic coast of Florida, from around the Daytona Beach area through Cocoa Beach and Melbourne on the Space Coast and into cities like West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami.
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This graphic shows the flash flood threat in Florida through Saturday, July 5, 2025.
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NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed a large portion of Florida in a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat over the next several days.
However, a Level 2 threat was highlighted along Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
On Wednesday, that threat zone extends from north of the Tampa area southward through the Sarasota area. On Thursday, the threat extends even farther south to the Fort Myers and Naples area.
On Friday, the Fourth of July, the flood threat pulls back a bit, and a large area of Central Florida was placed under a Level 1 flash flood threat.
The threat of flooding also continues for a portion of Florida’s Gulf coast on Saturday.